Posts falsely claim IMF ranked Nigeria as fourth fastest-growing economy in 2025

Published on June 5, 2025 at 14:33
3 min read
By Oluseyi AWOJULUGBE, AFP Nigeria

Nigeria has experienced a cost-of-living crisis following economic reforms undertaken by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, including the removal of a fuel subsidy and the devaluation of the local currency, the naira. Based on a chart, posts circulating on social media claim that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will be the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world in 2025. However, the claim is false; the latest GDP projections released by the IMF show that many countries’ economies will grow much faster than Nigeria’s. The chart in the posts is misleading and includes cherry-picked data.

“BREAKING: Nigeria ranked as the 4th fastest growing economy in the world by IMF reports,” read a post shared on Instagram and liked more than 400 times.

The post, dated April 30, 2025, includes a graphic charting the economic growth projections of various countries, including India, China, the United States and the United Kingdom.

The data in the chart, titled “Fastest Growing Economies in 2025” and featuring the logo for an entity called “Trade Brains”, is credited to the IMF.

Screenshot of the false Instagram post taken on June 3, 2025

The chart shows the projected growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) – a key measure of economic performance – of 12 countries in descending order, with India the highest at 6.2 percent. Nigeria appears in fourth place with projected GDP growth of 3 percent.

The same graphic has also appeared in dozens of other posts on Instagram and Facebook, including a verified account belonging to Nigeria’s National Orientation Agency.

However, the claim that the IMF has projected Nigeria’s economy will be the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world is false.

Skewed comparison

AFP Fact Check traced the chart’s source to the Instagram page of Trade Brains, an Indian financial news blog.

Screenshot of misleading Instagram post taken on June 4, 2025

The Trade Brains post, published on April 27, 2025, poses the question: “Can Indian GDP reach new heights?”

It cites IMF projections, which are released in a biannual report called the World Economic Outlook.

The latest version of the report, which covers 191 countries, was published in April 2025 (archived here).

In the report, the IMF projects Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3 percent in 2025. This is correctly depicted in the chart by Trade Brains, as are the figures listed for the other 11 countries.

However, the Trade Brains graphic represents a tiny sample of the IMF’s global GDP projections and gives the misleading impression that India tops the pile.

In fact, it predicts that the economies of several dozen countries will grow faster than India and Nigeria (archived here).

These include Libya (17.3 percent), with the biggest growth, followed by Guyana (10.3 percent), Senegal (8.4 percent), Guinea (7 percent) and Rwanda (7 percent). This growth is calculated in percentage of the country's GDP, not in overall monetary amounts.

In 2023, Tinubu declared an end to the petrol subsidy on his first day in office and freed up the naira currency, changes that government officials and analysts say will revive the economy and attract investors.

Meanwhile, the population is suffering the harsh effects of these policies, which have set inflation at a three-decade high while the cost of living has soared (archived here).

AFP Fact Check previously debunked claims about Nigeria’s relationship with the IMF here, including one that Nigeria is now debt-free.

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