No evidence high turnout in New Jersey was due to fraudulent votes

"Something is very wrong with these numbers!" said a November 5, 2025 Facebook post, which shared a chart detailing voter turnout over five decades of gubernatorial elections.

A similar post on X compared Sherrill's count to vote totals from the 2021 election of Democratic Governor Phil Murphy. It asked: "Did 500,000 more people vote this election or is that 500,000 illegal votes?"

A third post singled out Sherrill's results in the state's Essex and Hudson counties and concluded, "There is absolutely no way these numbers are real and organic."

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Screenshot of a Facebook post taken November 13, 2025

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Screenshot of an X post taken November 13, 2025

But Sherrill beat her Republican rival by more than 13 points, 56.6 percent to 42.8 percent, with US President Donald Trump's decision to freeze funding for the Hudson Tunnel project linking New Jersey and New York seen as an important boost for the former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor.

And five of New Jersey's county clerks told AFP there is no evidence that widespread fraud was behind Sherrill's win.

"The office is not aware of any voter fraud within our county," the Morris County Clerk's office said in a November 10 email.

Factors driving turnout

New Jersey saw the number of registered voters increase to 6,632,728 in 2025 -- up 56,824 voters from 2021 (archived here and here). The rise reflects a bump in the state's population, as New Jersey reported in January 2025 that it was leading the northeast region in year-over-year population growth after it experienced a 2.3 percent increase between April 2020 and December 2024 (archived here). 

The state offers voters three ways to cast a ballot: by mail, in person during the early voting period, or on Election Day.

Local media reported that three counties including Essex and Hudson -- those highlighted in the X post alleging widespread fraud -- chose to open more polling sites for early voting than the state required.

By November 2, two days before the election, nearly 1.3 million people had voted early in person or by mail. That amounted to far more such votes than in 2021, where about 780,000 ballots were cast prior to Election Day (archived here and here).

Some counties also had key local races on the ballot, adding to the draw for voters.

Hudson County Clerk E. Junior Maldonado said mayoral and city council elections in Jersey City and Hoboken, "two of the largest cities in the county," helped drive their strong turnout (archived here).

Exit polls also showed minority voters appeared motivated to vote in this election (archived here). 

AAPI New Jersey said the youth vote among Asian Americans "surged" and that the community voters "overwhelmingly favored Sherrill" (archived here). 

The governor-elect also reportedly received support from Black church leaders, plus endorsements from the Latino Leadership of South Jersey and the Latino Action Network (archived here, here and here).

Matt Barreto, an expert on Latino voting patterns and professor of political science at University of California, Los Angeles, told AFP on November 6 that Latino voters are "overwhelmingly" driven by "the economy, jobs and costs" and were also motived by Trump's hardline immigration policies (archived here).

"We have extreme tactics against immigrants that are driving fear and anger in the Latino community," Barreto said.

According to exit polls, 97 percent of Sherrill's supporters said one reason for their vote was to "oppose Trump" (archived here).

Sherrill's campaign said its outreach efforts included "1.5 million doors knocked, 5.5 million calls made, and over 11.8 million texts sent" (archived here). 

Election safeguards

Regarding the allegations of widespread fraud, New Jersey county clerks also told AFP there are several laws and procedures in place to ensure the security of the election. 

Disinformation about noncitizens voting previously plagued the 2024 presidential election, but in order to vote in New Jersey, a person must be a US citizen, at least 18 years old, a resident of the county for 30 days before the election and not serving a sentence of incarceration (archived here).

Mercer County Clerk Paula Sollami Covello told AFP voters that most jurisdictions required a signature when registering that is compared to the one given in-person or on a mail ballot (archived here). 

Researchers, meanwhile, have consistently found that election fraud is rare. 

The conservative Heritage Foundation tracks election fraud and has recorded just 52 cases in New Jersey since 1982 (archived here).

AFP has previously fact-checked other claims about US politics here.