Fabricated poll spurs baseless claims Philippines ex-leader Duterte 'losing support' in stronghold city

"Looks like the Dutertes are gonna get buried deep in the ground come election time. Rightly so!" read the caption of an X post shared on January 28, 2025. 

It featured a purported graphic titled "latest Octa research survey Davao City mayor online survey" dated "October 1 to November 20, 2024".

The purported survey results appear to show Duterte and his son and incumbent Davao City mayor Sebastian -- both gunning for the city's top two positions in May midterms -- vastly trailing behind rivals ex-cabinet secretary Karlo Nograles and councilor Bernard Al-Ag.

Duterte and Nograles's father Prospero are long-standing political rivals, though the latter supported Duterte's presidential bid in 2016 (archived link).

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Screenshot of the false X post, taken on February 3, 2025

The graphic -- earlier debunked by Rappler news organisation -- was also shared across Facebook (archived link).

Ex-president Duterte's decision to run for mayor follows a bitter, public falling out with the family of Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos ahead of presidential elections in 2028 (archived link).

Duterte's other son Paolo is seeking reelection as representative for Davao City's first district while Paolo's son Omar is running for representative of the second district (archived link).

The 2025 midterm vote is seen as crucial for both the Duterte and the Marcos families as they seek to shore up rival support bases.

But the circulating graphic is a fabrication. 

Fabricated survey

"It's a fake survey. We're categorically denying doing that survey during that period. We hope it won't be shared," Octa Research president Ranjit Rye told AFP on February 3.

Rye added the firm does not publish surveys related to local elections for the upcoming polls.

In a statement posted on Facebook on January 27, Octa Research separately warned users of alleged pre-election survey results in Davao City that are being "falsely attributed" to the polling firm (archived link). 

Keyword searches on Octa Research's official website found no record of any surveys for the Davao local elections conducted from October to November 2024 (archived link).

A genuine electoral survey graphic from the firm shared on its official Facebook page on September 10, 2023 shows several elements are missing from the fabricated graphic (archived link). 

It displays the firm's logo, includes a copy of the survey question and directs users to the link of the full report.

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Screenshot comparison of the fabricated graphic (left) and an Octa Research graphic (right)

The fabricated graphic also omitted the names of three other mayoral aspirants and two other vice mayor candidates for Davao City (archived link).

AFP has previously debunked misinformation related to the 2025 midterm elections.