Philippine weather agency rejects false warning of '25 typhoons hitting the Philippines in 2024'

After Tropical Storm Trami battered the Philippines in October 2024 and forced over half a million people to flee their homes, a list of storms from the state weather agency has circulated on social media with a false claim they are the 25 typhoons that will hit the archipelago nation in 2024. But a representative for the agency told AFP the list was simply a roster of names to be assigned to this year's storms, and it was "very unlikely" for 25 cyclones to hit the Philippines in 2024.

"Great danger. The year 2024 is a leap year, which is rare across the world," reads part of a Visayan-language post shared on October 25. "Let's keep a close watch, friends, because there will be many storms globally."

The post -- shared over 4,000 times -- goes on to list the names of 25 storms that it says will hit the Philippines in 2024 and attributes them to the Philippines' meteorological department (PAGASA) and its parent agency, the Department of Science and Technology (DOST).

"All these storms will be in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)," it adds.

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Screenshot of the false post taken on November 4, 2024

Some users appeared to believe the claim was genuine. 

"This is so crazy, our roofs will go flying again. We can only pray on this," one user wrote. 

Another comment read: "I hope this isn't the case, Lord, we haven't recovered yet."

The claim was shared after Tropical Storm Trami rammed into the Philippines on October 24, killing at least 150 people (archived link).

About 20 big storms and typhoons hit the country or its surrounding waters each year, damaging homes and infrastructure and killing dozens of people.  

A recent study showed that storms in the Asia-Pacific region are increasingly forming closer to coastlines, intensifying more rapidly and lasting longer over land due to climate change. 

Similar claims were shared elsewhere on Facebook including here, here and here.

But the list only shows a roster of names that could be assigned to typhoons, not actual storms that will hit the country. 

Prepared list

Marco Polo Ibanez, a PAGASA research specialist, told AFP on November 4 that the list "is created in advance and does not guarantee that all names on it will be used within the year".

As of November 7, the Philippines is on its 13th tropical cyclone with typhoon Marce, known internationally as Yinxing (archived link).

The names are also published on PAGASA's website, along with three other sets of names used in rotation until 2037 (archived link).

Ibanez said each set is reused every four years, unless a particular cyclone's name is retired for being "exceptionally impactful" as in the case of super Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest storms on record.

Ibanez also explained that the claim of 25 storms hitting the Philippines this year was "not accurate".

Referring to a chart showing the weather agency's projections, Ibanez said it was "very unlikely" for a total of 25 storms to affect the country in 2024 (archived link).

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PAGASA’s projection for how many typhoons are expected for the remainder of 2024 (Pagasa)

"Given we are on the 13th cyclone and considering typical climatology, we expect only an additional two to four tropical cyclones for the rest of 2024."

Misinformation often circulates after natural disasters, as AFP has debunked here and here.