Post misleadingly claims Nigerian leader lost most states in 2023 election stronghold

“Yorubas VOTED against Tinubu. He lost Lagos, Ogun, Osun and Oyo, badly. He BOUGHT Ekiti and Ondo votes,” reads an X post shared more than 3,000 times after it was published on July 14, 2024.

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Screenshot showing the misleading X post, taken July 19, 2024

Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Oyo, Ekiti and Ondo states form the southwestern zone of Nigeria — a stronghold for Tinubu (archived here).

The veteran politician was sworn in as Nigerian president after a disputed poll in February 2023 against Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP). The country’s Supreme Court validated his victory in a unanimous decision on September 26, 2023, dismissing opposition parties’ appeals (archived here).

The claim was posted by Babatunde Gbadamosi, a former Lagos state governorship candidate of the Action Democratic Party (ADP). His feed features content critical of Tinubu’s leadership (see here and here) while trying to incite mass disobedience among Nigerians.

However, the claim that Tinubu “lost badly” in Lagos, Ogun, Osun and Oyo states is misleading.

Won in Oyo and Ogun

AFP Fact Check scoured through the dashboard of the 2023 presidential poll results collated by Stears, an African insight and data provider. The dashboard uses official information captured and validated by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (archived here and here).

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Screenshot of the Stears election dashboard showing how the states votes in 2023, taken July 21, 2024

According to the results, Tinubu lost two states in the southwestern region — not four. The results were also tight.

They showed Tinubu came close to winning in Osun, polling 342,941 votes (47.34%) against Abubakar who reaped 353,860 votes (48.85%). Obi came third with 23,283 votes (3.21%).

Tinubu also got pipped in Lagos — a state he served as a governor between 1999 and 2007 — after securing 572,606 votes (45.04%) to Obi’s 582,454 (45.81%). Abubakar mustered third with 75,750 votes (5.96%).

Contrary to the claim, Tinubu triumphed in Oyo and Ogun.

He came first in Oyo with 329,427 votes (56.50%), comfortably beating second-placed Abubakar who received 131,742 votes (22.60%). Obi was third with 69,547 votes (11.93%).

In Ogun, a similar situation played out: Tinubu won with 231,563 votes (61.21%);  Abubakar came second with 68,025 votes (17.98%); and Obi finished third with 58,970 votes (15.59%).

Tinubu also enjoyed landslide victories in Ekiti (with 201,494 votes or 65.39%) and Ondo (233,565 votes or 68.03%).