Posts vastly exaggerate Nigeria’s HIV infections after US pauses aid

Published on February 7, 2025 at 15:59
3 min read
By Oluseyi AWOJULUGBE, AFP Nigeria

US President Donald Trump caused a stir worldwide by freezing funding for foreign aid – a decision that affected the American HIV/AIDS response programme called PEPFAR. Speculating on the possible impact, posts on social media claim that 45 million people aged between 14 and 24 are living with HIV in Nigeria. This is false; the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that two million Nigerian adults and children were infected with HIV at the end of 2023. The figure in the claim exceeds the total worldwide infections.

“45.52 million people aged 14-24 years old (sic) are living with HIV in Nigeria (sic),” reads the caption of a photo shared on Instagram on January 30, 2024.

It adds: “Remember, no HIV funds.”

Screenshot of the false Instagram post, taken on February 5, 2025

The accompanying image shows an emaciated man receiving medical attention.

Some of the comments in the post doubt the accuracy of the data, while others express alarm at the seemingly large number of Nigerians infected with the virus.

The claim appeared in other posts on X and Facebook.

American aid freeze

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued an internal memo days after Trump took office and vowed an “America First” policy of tightly restricting assistance overseas (archived here).

“No new funds shall be obligated for new awards or extensions of existing awards until each proposed new award or extension has been reviewed and approved,” said the memo, to staff, seen by AFP.

The document called for an internal review of all foreign assistance within 85 days.

To justify the freeze, Rubio said it was impossible for the new administration to assess whether existing foreign aid commitments “are not duplicated, are effective and are consistent with President Trump’s foreign policy”.

While the announcement has alarmed many in Africa, the claim about Nigeria’s HIV figures is false.

Global AIDS burden

The WHO estimated that 39.9 million people were living with HIV at the end of 2023 – the most recent statistics, released last year (archived here).

A breakdown of the data shows that the burden is greatest in Africa – the continent has an estimated 26 million infections, but significantly fewer than the figure ascribed to Nigeria in the false posts.

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country with a population exceeding 227 million at the end of 2023 according to the WHO (archived here).

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates that 1.9 million adults aged 15 and older were living with the disease in Nigeria in 2023 (archived here).

Screenshot from UNAIDS showing Nigeria’s HIV prevalence

A memo from the US State Department shows that Nigeria’s budget for 2024 and 2025 under PEPFAR is $782 million.

AFP Fact Check contacted Nigeria’s National Agency for the Control of AIDS for comments and will update this article if they reply.

Meanwhile, South Africa accounts for the world’s largest population of people living with HIV and is one of the largest recipients of funds from PEPFAR.

HIV clinics in the country have been temporarily closed since the announcement (archived here).

However, the US State Department said a waiver for “life-saving humanitarian assistance” covers PEPFAR, suggesting at least some of the lifeline funding should not be affected (archived here).

AFP Fact Check has debunked various claims about Trump’s second presidency and Nigeria here.

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